Ken Kam's Best Ideas Blog tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1 2008-05-14T20:31:38Z The market is almost never all good or all bad -- but no single person has enough expertise to invest well across all industries. This is why Ken’s strategy relies on a team. Copyright (c) 2002-2007, Marketocracy, Inc. Movable Type 3.2 Marketocracy Media Highlights tag:research.marketocracy.com,2007:/BIP//1.337 2008-05-15T05:03:33Z 2008-05-14T20:31:38Z Advisor Perspectives, May 13, 2008 - Ken Kam's article entitled, "Coin Flipping and the Search for Alpha," is published in a publication for Financial Advisors click here The Globe and Mail, May 3, 2008 - mFOLIO Master, Ian St. Martin is featured in an article entitled, ("Professional investor sticks with what he knows," by Larry MacDonald) click here The Globe and Mail, March 29, 2008 - mFOLIO Master, Randolph McDuff is featured in an article entitled, ("Snagging the bargains... Mark Taguchi
]]> Advisor Perspectives, May 13, 2008 - Ken Kam's article entitled, "Coin Flipping and the Search for Alpha," is published in a publication for Financial Advisors click here

The Globe and Mail, May 3, 2008 - mFOLIO Master, Ian St. Martin is featured in an article entitled, ("Professional investor sticks with what he knows," by Larry MacDonald) click here

The Globe and Mail, March 29, 2008 - mFOLIO Master, Randolph McDuff is featured in an article entitled, ("Snagging the bargains under the analyst' radar," by Larry MacDonald) click here

The Globe and Mail, March 11, 2008 - Ken Kam and Marketocracy are featured in-depth in an article entitled, ("A fund for the people, by the people," by Larry MacDonald) click here

MSN Video, February 8, 2008 - m100 member, Vad Yazvinski (dishwasher) describes his investment strategy in a video during the Strategy Lab on MSN Money panel at the World Money Show in Orlando. click here

PR Newswire, February 5, 2008 - Strategy Lab on MSN Money Announces Vad Yazvinski (dishwasher) as Winner of Investing Competition. click here

Börse Online, January 2008 - the "Barron's of Germany" features mFOLIO Masters Ian St. Martin (ist.martin) and Tim Eriksen (teriksen) along with m100 member David Insel (dinsel) in an article about how Marktocracy has enabled aspiring hedge fund managers to realize their dreams of becoming a professional, entitled, ("Internet formt Profianleger," by Nele Husmann) click to download PDF

NY 1 News, February 6, 2008 - David Insel (dinsel) is featured in an article and video interview on Marketocracy on the Times Warner 24-hour news channel in New York City, ("Money Matters: Website Lets Amateurs Learn The Ropes of Day-To-Day Trading," by Lindsey Pless) click here for the article, or to watch the video using Real Player click here

Biz Radio, January 3, 2008 - Ken Kam is interviewed during two segments on Biz Radio by Jack Warkenthien and John Sheely on Where Wall Street Meets Main Street Radio Show (Segment One: Marketocracy,investing, and talking stocks) click here; (Segment Two: the Market, Elan, and Valero) click here

Biz Radio, December 17, 2007 - Ken Kam is interviewed during three segments on Biz Radio by Brent Clanton on the Mike Norman Market Talk Show (Segment One: MSN Strategy Lab and Fed Moves) click here; (Segment Two: More from your Core) click here; (Segment Three: Manager Track Records) click here

Forbes, December 13, 2007 - an Estate Planning article by Ken Kam entitled, ("A Bicycle Trust For Christmas," by Ken Kam) click here

The Times, November 24, 2007 - Chris Rees (crees) and TJ White (auminer) are featured in an article on Marketocracy in the United Kingdom, ("Could you be the next Marketocracy investment expert," by Mark Bridge) click here

Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, December 2007 - Marketocracy is highlighted in an article, ("Network Your Way to Winning Stocks: Investors who love company are finding lots of it on the Net," by Anne Kates Smith) click here

BusinessWeek, 11/13/07 - Marketocracy is featured in an article, ("Investing: The Net Wisdom or Peers," by David Bogoslaw) click here

Forbes, 11/08/07 - Marketocracy m100 members, Jim Cummings (jcummings1) and George Lang (glang) are featured in an article about retirees that have made a second career out of investing, ("Old Folks, Smart Money," by Matt Schifrin) click here

The Globe and Mail, 11/2/07 - Marketocracy is highlighted in an article, ("A new phase for stock websites," by Rob Carrick) click here

Entrepreneur Magazine, 11/07 - Marketocracy is featured in an article, ("Strength in Numbers: Marketocracy is taking its virtual investing platform into the real world by pooling user advice," by David Worrell) click here

AOL Blogging Stocks, 10/23/07 - Ken Kam on video talks about "Do your homework and buy when other investors are afraid," for a segment at AOL Money and Finance entitled, ("StockWatch: Between the Bells with Ken Kam") VIEW Video here

AOL Blogging Stocks, 10/20/07 - Ken Kam's thoughts on Valero (nyse: VLO) are captured in an article entitled, ("Best energy ideas: 'Misunderstood' value in Valero," by Steven Halpern) click here

San Jose Mercury News, 10/19/07 - Ken Kam is featured and quoted in an article, ("20 years after Black Monday: What if it happened today?," by Mark Schwanhausser) click here

TheStreet.com, 10/18/07 - Marketocracy is featured in an article, ("Fund Casts Wide Net to Catch Best Stocks," by Gregg Greenberg) click here

TheStreet.com, 10/18/07 - Video interview of Ken Kam by Gregg Greenberg of TheStreet.com entitled, ("Marketocracy Chooses Mastercard, Valero") VIEW Video here

Forbes, 10/15/07 - m100 member, Kai Petainen (ahknaten) is featured in an article about trading at Business Schools, ("Playing the Market," by Matthew Kirdahy) click here

Press Release, 10/2/07 - Marketocracy Celebrates "Seven Years of Investing Track Records" - the ONLY Investment Website That Has Long-Term Performance Data on Its Members and Gathering of the Best Investors in the World - m100 Annual Meeting to be held October 5-7th at Marketocracy headquarters (click to see press release)

Press Release, 8/28/07 - Marketocracy Adds New Multi-Zone mFOLIO for Managed Accounts (click to see press release)

U.S. News & World Report, 8/16/07 - Marketocracy mFOLIO Masters Adam Thompson (athompson) and Randolph McDuff (rmcduff) are profiled in an article, ("Profiting From Web Investing Sites," by Renuka Rayasam) click here

U.S. News & World Report, 8/16/07 - Marketocracy is featured in an article about tracking the statistics of portfolio managers ("Tracking Stock-Picking Prowess Online," by Renuka Rayasam) click here

Marketwatch, 8/7/07 - Ken Kam is quoted on the impact of the Fed's decision on Asian stock markets in an article ("Asian stocks may rise on Fed's optimism, U.S. rally," by Moming Zhou) click here

The Market Oracle, 8/4/07 - Marketocracy is featured in article entitled, ("Sharpening Your Stock Trading Skills," by Peter Degraaf) click here

Forbes, 8/2/07 - Ken Kam recommends Valero in an interview entitled, ("Valero's Deep Discount," by John Dobosz) click here

Marketwatch, 7/26/07 - Ken Kam is quoted on the impact of the U.S. market drop on Asian stock markets in an article ("Asia stocks may decline, pacing U.S. downturn," by Moming Zhou) click here

Dow Jones Newswires, 7/17/07 - Ken Kam and Marketocracy are featured in a Tip Sheet ("Marketocracy CEO Nets Ideas From A Large Pool," by Bob Sechler) click here

MSN Strategy Lab, 6/29/07 - Ken Kam is featured along with the launch of Strategy Lab Open, in the Round 15 wrap up ("Chalk up another one for Ken Kam," by Ron Prichard) click here

MSN Strategy Lab, 6/14/07 - Ken Kam shares his personal plan to build a safer safety net for our kids ("A safety net safer than Social Security," by Ken Kam) click here

Press Release, 6/07/07 - Marketocracy's mFOLIOs for Retail Investors a Success (click to see press release)

BusinessWeek, 6/11/07 - Marketocracy is featured as a leader in crowdsourcing within the INSIDE INNOVATION - IN CROWDS section of the print version of BusinessWeek and highlighted online ("Using Web Crowds To Invest, Design Gifts, And Make Things," by Jessi Hempel) click here

AssignmentZERO, 5/31/07 - Marketocracy is featured as a leader in crowdsourcing in a Q&A interview for the groundbreaking collaborative journalism project of NewAssignment.net, founded by Jay Rosen in collaboration with Wired.com. The article looks at how Marketocracy has developed successful approaches key to making crowdsourcing work for investing ("Crowdsourcing to Innovate Investing," by Steve Petersen) click here

Business News Network (BNN), 4/4/07 - Ken Kam is featured in a primetime interview about the importance of knowing a manager's track records vs. a fund's track record in a piece entitled, ("Forget the Funds, Keep Your Eye on Managers," in Round 3 of "Stars & Dogs" with Andrew Bell and Kim Parlee) NOTE: The video takes a long time to load and start. Once the video begins you can scroll through approximately 2/3 of the show to get directly to the interview with Ken Kam. click here

AOL Blogging Stocks, 3/21/07 - Ken Kam is featured in article focused on Valero Energy (VLO) ("Valero: Ken Kam's refined favorite," by Steven Halpern)

Marketwatch, 3/10/07 - Ken Kam is quoted in a Market Snapshot article regarding the market rebound from the global sell-off the week before ("Stocks set to extend rebound," by Carla Mozee) click here

Forbes, 3/5/07 - Marketocracy mFOLIO Master, Chris Rees is featured in an article and compared to both Warren Buffett and Jimmy Buffett (Dual Buffett Strategy, by Matt Schifrin) click here

Marketwatch, 2/28/07 - Ken Kam's commentary in the wake of the Shanghai stock market ripple through the world markets was published in Marketwatch's Guru Corner (Don't Panic! : Fear creates opportunities) click here

BusinessWeek, 2/20/07 - Marketocracy's launch of mFOLIOs is featured in an article written by the Silicon Valley Bureau Chief of BusinessWeek who also wrote the cover story The Power of Us : Mass collaboration on The Internet is shaking up business, where Marketocracy is featured in Finance alongside eBAY for Retail, Google for Advertising, Linux for Software, and Skype for Telecom as the companies "shaking up the status quo in many industries" as part of "the Net's Next Disruption." (Marketocracy + FOLIOfn: Power of the People's Portfolios, by Robert D. Hof) click here

Press Release, 2/20/07 - Marketocracy Selects mFOLIO Masters (click to see press release)

Press Release, 2/20/07 - Marketocracy Partners with FOLIOfn to Launch mFOLIOs for Retail Investors (click to see press release)

VentureBeat, 2/19/07 - Marketocracy's launch of mFOLIOs along with an interview with mFOLIO Master, Chris Rees, is featured in an article written by the founder and editor of VentureBeat, the successor to the popular SiliconBeat (Marketocracy lets you place money with the best, by Matt Marshall) click here

Ticker Magazine, 2/9/07 - Ken Kam and Marketocracy are featured in this popular column entitled, "Mutual Fund Q&A" in which portfolio managers are interviewed. ("Manager Performance," by Ticker Magazine) click here

Forbes, 2/1/07 - Marketocracy Castaway 2006 competition winners are featured in an end of year article ("Seven Buy-And-Hold Stock Stars," by Matthew Schifrin)

BusinessWeek, 1/18/07 - Marketocracy is highlighted in an article looking into the "application of open-source principles to fields outside software" as an example that "you should now about." (Tapping the Wisdom of the Crowd, by Jessi Hempel) click here

MarketWatch, 1/17/07 - Ken Kam is quoted in an article about the launch of the Russell Investment Group's Global 10,000 family of index ("Russell launches Global 10,000 index," by Steve Gelsi)

Associated Press, 1/3/07 - Ken Kam is featured in an article about funds with "go-anywhere" charters (Multicaps give fund managers leeway, by Tim Paradis, Associated Press) click here

Press Release, 1/3/07 - Marketocracy Announces "Castaway Stocks" for 2007 (click to see press release)

AOL Blogging Stocks, 12/27/06 - Ken Kam is featured in article on Valero Energy (VLO) ("Top Picks 2007: Valero fuels refined gains for Ken Kam," by Steven Halpern)

Globe and Mail, 12/26/06 - Marketocracy is highlighted as a leading-edge company in an article about a bestselling book entitled, "Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything," by Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams (A new world: Get your mass collaboration road map set, by Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams)

AOL Blogging Stocks, 12/21/06 - Ken Kam is featured in article on Elan Corporation (ELN) ("Top Picks 2007: Ken Kam revisits Elan and Tysabri," by Steven Halpern)

Forbes, 12/20/06 - Ken Kam is a quoted about taking end of tax-year losses on Infosonics (IFON) in an article ("Year-End Tax Loss Dogs," by John Dobosz)

San Jose Mercury News, 12/17/06 - Ken Kam is quoted in an article about the impact on stock prices of the stock option backdating by companies ("The shares of companies accused of backdating options are up sharply as investors see this mess as past history," by Mark Schwanhausser)

Chicago Tribune, 11/5/06 - Ken Kam is featured talking about Elan and United Airlines ("Risky Business investing in turnaround stocks," by Andrew Leckey) click here

Forbes, 11/1/06 - Marketocracy model portfolio manager, Tim Eriksen (teriksen) is featured and compared with famed portfolio manager, Bill Miller, in an article for a new column entitled, "Armchair Guru" (Leg Up On Legg Mason, by Matt Schifrin) click here

San Francisco Chronicle, 10/23/06 - Marketocracy is featured in an article ("Web sites eye vast number of users to identify experts. Their knowledge draws those who pay for insights," by Alan Sipress) click here

The Washington Post, 10/19/06 - Marketocracy is highlighted as a pioneer of the "wisdom of the few" in an article ("The Top Pickers vs. the Pack: Site want users to buy into the Genius Factor," by Alan Sipress) click here

Marketwatch, 9/23/06 - Ken Kam is quoted in a Market Snapshot article regarding the health of the economy and the possibility of a Fed rate cut ("Equities appear ripe for further losses," by Carla Mozee) click here

Kiplinger's, 9/18/06 - Ken Kam is featured in "Fund Watch", (Five Questions for Marketocracy's Ken Kam, by David Landis) click here

Forbes.com, 9/15/06 - Video interview of Ken Kam by John Dobosz of Forbes.com Video Network entitled, ("Sticking With Refiners And Resources") VIEW Video here

TheStreet.com, 9/12/06 - Video interview of Ken Kam by Gregg Greenberg of TheStreet.com entitled, ("Fund Manager Goes Blogging") VIEW Video here

Forbes, 8/15/06 - article on Infosonics ("Deep Value in Cellphone Distribution," by John Dobosz)

Bottom Line Personal, 8/06 - Ken Kam and Marketocracy are profiled in an article by Lynn O'Shaughnessy

Press Release, 7/31/06 - Marketocracy Launches Ken Kam's Best Ideas Blog (click to see press release)

Marketwatch, 7/14/06 - Ken Kam is quoted in a Market Snapshot article regarding the impact of fighting in the Middle East on oil prices ("Escalating violence could keep U.S. stocks down," by Carla Mozee) click here

Marketwatch, 7/3/06 - Ken Kam's commentary was published in the July issue of Marketwatch's "Trading Strategies" (Time to go on the offensive: Take advantage of choppy market to shop for doubles, by Ken Kam) click here

Wall St. Journal/Dow Jones, 6/29/06 - Ken Kam is quoted in article regarding the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting ("Fed Boosts Interest Rates for 17th consecutive time," by Brian Blackstone)

CNN, 6/23/06 - Ken Kam quoted in article on Bernanke and the Federal Reserve controlling inflation (Fed walks fine line, by Grace Wong) click here

MutualFundWire, 6/20/06 - Marketocracy is profiled ("Marketocracy Take Novel Approach, but Seeks Staying Power," by Marie Glancy)

Investors Business Daily, 6/5/06 - article on Ken Kam by Ken Hoover

Forbes, 4/7/06 - Ken Kam writes about his "Best Ideas" in Forbes' Advisor Soapbox column (Marketocracy's Magnificent Six, by Ken Kam) click here

Forbes.com, 2/16/06 - Video interview of Ken Kam by John Dobosz of Forbes.com Video Network entitled, ("Keeping Faith In His Best Buys") VIEW Video here

Forbes, 1/19/06 - profiles on a handful of Marketocracy model portfolio managers, Jack Barnes (jbarnes2), T.J. White (auminer), Gary Franklin (cfranklin), Alan Baginski (ahbahb), and Bryant Bloedorn (babloedorn) ("Eight Armchair Investors Who Beat The Pros," by Matt Rand) click here

Older Highlights

BusinessWeek, 6/20/05 - Marketocracy for Finance is featured alongside eBAY for Retail, Google for Advertising, Linux for Software, and Skype for Telecom as the companies "shaking up the status quo in many industries" as part of "the Net's Next Disruption" in the cover story (The Power of Us : Mass collaboration on The Internet is shaking up business, by Robert D. Hof) click here

Fortune, 1/10/05 - Marketocracy and m100 members, Ian St. Martin (ist.martin), Larry Thompson (larryjthompson), John Czerw (jczerw), and Michael Kantor (mkantor) are featured in Investing (Power to the People : The Marketocracy fund bets on stock picks from regular folks. After three years its performance is hardly average, by Andy Serwer) click here

Forbes, 3/22/04 - Marketocracy members, Larry Thompson (larryjthompson), Ray Nice (rnice), Kevin Harrigan (bananaslug), Faisal Chaudhry (fchaudhry), and Kevin Fravel (kfravel) are profiled (Amateur Gurus: Class of 2004, by Ken Kam) click here

For Media Enquiries Only, please email: press@marketocracy.com for more information.

]]> Stock Alerts May 12, 2008 tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.685 2008-05-12T17:41:50Z 2008-05-12T17:42:09Z Marketocracy Stock Alerts Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best. When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest. Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling Ticker Company Recent PriceMay... Mark Taguchi
]]>

Marketocracy Stock Alerts
Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best.

When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest.

Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling

Ticker Company Recent Price
May 12		 Best Buying Rest Selling
ARG Airgas Inc. $58.09 +10% -1%
AMT American Tower Corp. $43.96 +11% -2%

Best Buying represents the increase in holdings by the best investors during the 2 weeks ending May 9, 2008
Rest Selling represents the decrease in holdings by the rest of investors during the 2 weeks ending May 9, 2008

Stocks Removed from the Watchlist
We keep 18 stocks on our Stock Alerts Watchlist at any given time. We remove the stocks that the best investors are not buying as strongly and sell them from the Watchlist portfolio. Some stocks that get removed from the Watchlist may still be held by the best investors. This week we are removing the following stocks from the Stock Alerts Watchlist.

Ticker Company Recent Price
May 12
RIC Richmont Mines Inc. $3.45
UEIC Universal Electronics Inc. $22.79

Airgas Inc. (ARG) May 12 Recent Price:   $58.09
Airgas Inc. (NYSE : ARG) is a Pennsylvania based, mid-cap, industrial gas company. They specialize in distributing: nitrous oxide, dry ice, liquid carbon dioxide, argon, helium, welding gasses and anhydrous ammonia. With 900 locations, ARG’s primary customers include industrial, medical, environmental and food companies.
Best increased holdings by +10% Rest decreased holdings by -1%
The Best Investors began purchasing Airgas Inc. (ARG) in Apr. ’04 at $22, and then they bought some more in Feb. ’06 at $36. Although some sold their shares in Nov. ’06 at $37, a significant amount was purchased again in Feb. ’07 at $41. This has been an incredible stock for those who got in at $22 in ’04, as just recently the stock hit a high of $58.68. Now, within the past two weeks, the Best Investors have purchased more shares of ARG.
  
American Tower Corp. (AMT) May 12 Recent Price:   $43.96
American Tower Corp. (NYSE : AMT) is a Massachusetts based, large-cap, wireless telecommunications company. With over 19, 000 wireless towers and 200 broadcast towers in the USA, and 3,000 wireless towers in Mexico and Brazil, they specialize in leasing those towers to the major telecommunications companies.
Best increased holdings by +11% Rest decreased holdings by -2%
The Best Investors have held AMT for a very long time, as some have held it since Aug. ’03 at $9. Now although some sold it after that point, they began loading up on it again in Apr. ’05 at $18. Since then, the stock has had tremendous momentum as it rose to a high of $46.53 in Oct. ’07. Now, in the past two weeks, the Best Investors have purchased more shares of AMT, as they hope the momentum takes off again.
  
]]> Where are all the great investors? tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.682 2008-05-05T20:34:49Z 2008-05-05T20:50:18Z

We all dream of finding the next Warren Buffet. But even Warren Buffet is having trouble finding the next Warren Buffet. And, he’s not the only one having trouble. Out of over 11,000 mutual funds, almost 70% have replaced their managers in the last 5 years. That’s a pretty high failure rate. The scarcity of investment talent is the perhaps the single biggest reason why there are so few mutual funds that I found worth recommending as a core holding.  Click here for the list Actually, there is a good reason why there are so few great investors. When it comes to investing,  mistakes can cost thousands of dollars. Since everyone is bound to make mistakes when they are getting started, it is hard to get enough practice to become a great investor without going broke in the process. If the same was true of golf, there would be just as few great golfers as there are great investors. Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
]]> We all dream of finding the next Warren Buffet. But even Warren Buffet is having trouble finding the next Warren Buffet. And, he’s not the only one having trouble. Out of over 11,000 mutual funds, almost 70% have replaced their managers in the last 5 years. That’s a pretty high failure rate. The scarcity of investment talent is the perhaps the single biggest reason why there are so few mutual funds that I found worth recommending as a core holding.  Click here for the list

Actually, there is a good reason why there are so few great investors. When it comes to investing,  mistakes can cost thousands of dollars. Since everyone is bound to make mistakes when they are getting started, it is hard to get enough practice to become a great investor without going broke in the process. If the same was true of golf, there would be just as few great golfers as there are great investors.

The truth is that beginning investors should be just as cautious about trading with real money as a beginning pilot would be about his first solo flight. That is why I recommend that investors practice with a model portfolio before putting their real money at risk. To start now, click here. More than 100,000 people have set up a model portfolio at Marketocracy. And, over 30,000 have track records that are now more than 5 years old. We have signed research contracts with about 500 of them. This is the talent pool from which we choose our m100 team.

The reason so few core funds even exist is because no single investor has the expertise to do well in every industry. Consequently, in order to provide diversification and still have a chance to outperform the S&P 500, you need more than just one skilled investor, you need a team. That’s why I would rather have the m100 as my team instead of just hiring the one person with the best track record. Because we have so many skilled investors under contract with us, we are better able to run a core fund than almost any other firm.

If a fund could beat the S&P 500 every day, month, quarter, and year, it would be  easy to recommend it as a core holding. Of course, no one can promise that but it is a goal all core fund managers should strive for.  To measure our progress towards this goal, we use a metric we call the success ratio — the percentage of all of the days over a period of time when the m100 beat the S&P 500 after a specified holding period. For the last 3 years, here are the m100’s success ratios for various holding periods.

Holding Period     Success Ratio
1 month                59%
1 Quarter              67%
1 Year                73%
2 Years                96%

Since 2005, the m100 had a 59% chance of beating the S&P 500 after a holding period of just 1 month. With a holding period of 1 quarter there was a 67% chance of beating the S&P 500. The longer the holding period, the more likely it was that the m100 did better than an S&P 500 index fund. I would never recommend that anyone with a time horizon of 1 month, or even 1 quarter, invest in stocks. But for those with an investment horizon of at least 2 years, I think the m100 is a great team for a core portfolio.

Keep in mind that these statistics are for the m100 not the Masters 100 Fund. Even if the m100 does well, I am the Fund’s manager and I could still screw it up. However, over the weekend, Morningstar upgraded our Fund to 4 stars overall, and 5 stars for the past 3 years. So, I haven’t screwed things up too badly — at least not in the last 3 years!

]]> Stock Alerts April 28, 2008 tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.658 2008-04-28T16:53:53Z 2008-04-28T16:54:13Z Marketocracy Stock Alerts Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best. When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest. Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling Ticker Company Recent PriceApr... Mark Taguchi
]]>

Marketocracy Stock Alerts
Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best.

When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest.

Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling

Ticker Company Recent Price
Apr 28		 Best Buying Rest Selling
MEE Massey Energy Co. $55.23 +11% -2%
BEXP Brigham Exploration Co. $9.50 +31% -1%

Best Buying represents the increase in holdings by the best investors during the 2 weeks ending April 25, 2008
Rest Selling represents the decrease in holdings by the rest of investors during the 2 weeks ending April 25, 2008

Stocks Removed from the Watchlist
We keep 18 stocks on our Stock Alerts Watchlist at any given time. We remove the stocks that the best investors are not buying as strongly and sell them from the Watchlist portfolio. Some stocks that get removed from the Watchlist may still be held by the best investors. This week we are removing the following stocks from the Stock Alerts Watchlist.

Ticker Company Recent Price
Apr 28
RLI RLI Corp. $48.56
CAL Continental Airlines, Inc. $16.53

Massey Energy Co. (MEE) Apr 28 Recent Price:   $55.23
Massey Energy Company (NYSE: MEE), is a mid-cap, Virginia-based, Coal and Consumable Fuels company, that specializes in producing, processing and selling of steam and metallurgical grade coal. They have 35 underground mines and 12 surface mines in West Virginia, Virginia and Kentucky, and their primary customers include utility and industrial companies. MEE has 27000 acres of drilling rights and interests at 236 wells.
Best increased holdings by +11% Rest decreased holdings by -2%
Beginning in Aug. ’04, the Best Investors purchased MEE at $28 and then they turned around and sold some in Dec. ’04 at $35 and Nov. ’06 at $25. In Apr. ’07, some were invigorated with MEE once again and they bought some at $28. That bet has performed well, as the stock recently hit a high of $55.74. Now, in the past two weeks, the Best Investors are enjoying the ride, and they have purchased more shares of MEE.
  
Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP) Apr 28 Recent Price:   $9.50
Brigham Exploration Company (NASDAQ: BEXP), is a small-cap, Texas-based, Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Company, that specializes in using 3D seismic imaging and drilling for developing oil and natural gas deposits. BEXP has 760 wells, and is involved with exploration in West Texas, the Rocky Mountains, the Gulf Coast and the Anadarko Basin.
Best increased holdings by +31% Rest decreased holdings by -1%
The Best Investors began purchasing BEXP in Jan. ’04 at $8, and then in July ’04 they bought a bit more at $9. In Nov. ’06 they sold of some shares at $8, and that was nicely timed as the stock would drop to a low of $4.17 in Aug. ’07. Since Feb. ’08 at $7, and in the past two weeks, the Best Investors have purchased shares of BEXP once again.
  
]]> Learning from Mark Twain tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.656 2008-04-25T01:42:03Z 2008-04-25T01:46:59Z

Mark Twain once said that its not what you know that gets you in trouble, its what you think you know for sure that ain’t so. In my experience, when it comes to investing, Mark Twain was absolutely right. I’ve spent a lot of time trying to unlearn things I was sure of that just ain’t so. Recently I ran across an article that repeated a story that concludes that you cannot tell anything about an investor's future performance from his past track record. I first heard this story over 20 years ago, and to tell the truth, I was once so convinced by it that for a good part of my youth I kept my core equity portfolio almost entirely in index funds. The author of the article asked readers to imagine a stadium full of people ready to flip a coin. After each coin-toss, those who throw tails are asked to leave. At the end of 10 coin-tosses, there is one person left who has the exceptional track record of throwing heads 10 times in a row. Now, the author asks, would you bet on this person to do better than average in the next 10 coin-tosses? Of course not. Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
]]> Mark Twain once said that its not what you know that gets you in trouble, its what you think you know for sure that ain’t so. In my experience, when it comes to investing, Mark Twain was absolutely right. I’ve spent a lot of time trying to unlearn things I was sure of that just ain’t so.

Recently I ran across an article that repeated a story that concludes that you cannot tell anything about an investor's future performance from his past track record. I first heard this story over 20 years ago, and to tell the truth, I was once so convinced by it that for a good part of my youth I kept my core equity portfolio almost entirely in index funds.

The author of the article asked readers to imagine a stadium full of people ready to flip a coin. After each coin-toss, those who throw tails are asked to leave. At the end of 10 coin-tosses, there is one person left who has the exceptional track record of throwing heads 10 times in a row. Now, the author asks, would you bet on this person to do better than average in the next 10 coin-tosses? Of course not.

Even though the champion coin-tosser has a perfect track record of throwing 10 heads in a row, his chances of doing better than average in the next 10 coin-tosses are the same as everyone else’s. If you believe that an investor’s returns are entirely due to luck then you can draw the conclusion that it makes just as little sense to bet on the fund manager with the best track record as it does to bet on the champion coin-tosser. The storyteller usually wants to encourage you to use index funds for the core of your portfolio.

The story sounds persuasive until you realize that once you assume that everyone is tossing a fair coin things can’t come out any other way since no one can be skilled at tossing a fair coin. But, what if that assumption is wrong?

Dr. Hersh Shefrin, a professor at Santa Clara University, uses a similar thought experiment in his book, Beyond Greed and Fear to reach a very different conclusion. Let me try to explain.

Lets suppose that we have a group of 42,000 people who each receive one of three types of coins - gold, silver, or bronze. The gold coins are weighted so they have a 60% chance of coming up heads. The silver coins are weighted evenly to give a 50% chance of tossing heads. The bronze coins are weighted to come up heads only 40% of the time.

If everyone tossed their coin 10 times, the group would average 5 heads.  If we want to bet on someone to beat the average of 5 heads out of the next 10 tosses, it would be smart to bet on someone holding a gold coin because each of these people can be expected to throw 6 heads. But, there is one more twist, all the coins are painted green so you can’t tell what kind of coin anyone has. Now, let's see if a track record has any value.

At the start, there are 14,000 people who have a gold coin, 14,000 with a silver coin, and 14,000 with a bronze coin. If you had to choose someone to bet on now, your chances of selecting someone with a gold coin are 33%. But if you wait until after the first coin toss the odds improve to 40%. Here's why. Of the 14,000 people holding gold coins, 60% will throw heads so they will comprise 8,400 of the people still in the stadium after the first toss. Of the 14,000 who hold a silver coin, 50% will throw heads, so 7,000 of them will remain. Of the bronze coin holders, 40% will throw heads accounting for 5,600 of those remaining. After the first toss, there will be 21,000 people in the stadium, but 8.400 of them, 40%, will be holding gold coins.

With each successive toss, the odds of selecting a gold coin holder from the people who remain improve. After the 10th coin toss, there will be 100 people in the stadium. But, 85 of them will have gold coins, 14 will have silver coins and 1 will have a bronze coin. If you select randomly from among the people who threw 10 heads in a row, your chances of picking someone holding a gold coin are now 85%.

Restricting your choices to those with a track record of throwing 10 heads in a row greatly increases your odds of selecting a gold coin holder who can then be expected to throw 6 heads in the next 10 tosses and thus beat the average of all 42,000 which will be 5.

Since many who hold gold coins will throw less than 6 heads in the next 10 tosses, there is a good argument to choose all 100 of the people who threw 10 heads in a row instead of just 1. The expected performance of the entire group of 100 in the next 10 tosses is 5.84. By choosing all 100, the probability of the group averaging more than 5 is higher than if you just choose a single person with a gold coin. This is one reason I use the m100 rather than just choosing the person with the best track record.

I don't mean to imply that anyone should select managers based solely on their past performance. Investing is a lot harder than tossing coins. My point is simply that the story that is so often used to explain why a manager's track record contains no useful information for investors does not stand up to scrutiny.

I sent a version of this journal entry to the editor of the online magazine that published the article. He sent it to the author of the article who wrote a thoughtful response.  Click here to see my letter and the author’s response on the next page.

]]> Stock Alerts April 14, 2008 tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.633 2008-04-14T21:47:20Z 2008-04-14T21:47:35Z Marketocracy Stock Alerts Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best. When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest. Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling Ticker Company Recent PriceApr... Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
]]>

Marketocracy Stock Alerts
Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best.

When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest.

Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling

Ticker Company Recent Price
Apr 14		 Best Buying Rest Selling
ALV Autoliv Inc. $50.47 +60% -2%
SPIL Siliconware Precision Industries Co. Ltd. $8.67 +20% -1%

Best Buying represents the increase in holdings by the best investors during the 2 weeks ending April 11, 2008
Rest Selling represents the decrease in holdings by the rest of investors during the 2 weeks ending April 11, 2008

Stocks Removed from the Watchlist
We keep 18 stocks on our Stock Alerts Watchlist at any given time. We remove the stocks that the best investors are not buying as strongly and sell them from the Watchlist portfolio. Some stocks that get removed from the Watchlist may still be held by the best investors. This week we are removing the following stocks from the Stock Alerts Watchlist.

Ticker Company Recent Price
Apr 14
PROS ProCentury Corp. $18.45
LXU LSB Industries Inc. $15.07

Autoliv Inc. (ALV) Apr 14 Recent Price:   $50.47
Autoliv Inc. (NYSE: ALV) is a mid–cap, Swedish-based, auto parts & equipment company that specializes in designing and manufacturing: airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels, child seats, night vision systems, and safety electronic systems. In 2007, With 80 production facilities, ALV made: 110 million seatbelt systems, 72 million airbags, 11 million steering and 9 million electronic systems.
Best increased holdings by +60% Rest decreased holdings by -2%
The Best Investors started purchasing ALV in ’04 at $40, and they would purchase more shares in Mar. ’06 at $49. ALV hit a high of $65 in Oct. ’07 and they began selling shares in Nov. ’07 at $62. The stock has dropped since then, but in the past two weeks, the Best Investors have purchased shares once again in ALV.
  
Siliconware Precision Industries Co. Ltd. (SPIL) Apr 14 Recent Price:   $8.67
Siliconware Precision Industries Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SPIL) is a mid–cap, Taiwan-based, semiconductor company that specializes in packing and testing services of semiconductor products. The packing segment provides lead-frame, and substrate packaging for wafers and chips; whereas, the testing segment is responsible for testing semiconductor and memory components. SPIL’s customers are located world-wide and they assist many of the major semiconductor companies.
Best increased holdings by +20% Rest decreased holdings by -1%
The Best Investors started purchasing SPIL in Nov. ’03 at $4, and they would load up on more shares in Apr. ’04 at $4. As SPIL gained momentum and rose, they bought more shares in Apr. ’06 at $6, and Apr. ’07 at $10. SPIL hit a high of $12.55 in Oct. ’07, and then some sold shares in Nov. ’07 at $10. Now, in the past two weeks, the Best Investors have loaded up on shares of SPIL once again.
  
]]> Stock Alerts March 31, 2008 tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.614 2008-03-31T18:16:03Z 2008-03-31T18:16:14Z

Marketocracy Stock Alerts Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best. When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest. Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling Ticker Company Recent PriceMar... Mark Taguchi
]]>

Marketocracy Stock Alerts
Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best.

When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest.

Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling

Ticker Company Recent Price
Mar 31		 Best Buying Rest Selling
SQM Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile Inc. $23.00 +43% -5%
MHK Mohawk Industries Inc. $71.12 +14% -1%

Best Buying represents the increase in holdings by the best investors during the 2 weeks ending March 28, 2008
Rest Selling represents the decrease in holdings by the rest of investors during the 2 weeks ending March 28, 2008

Stocks Removed from the Watchlist
We keep 18 stocks on our Stock Alerts Watchlist at any given time. We remove the stocks that the best investors are not buying as strongly and sell them from the Watchlist portfolio. Some stocks that get removed from the Watchlist may still be held by the best investors. This week we are removing the following stocks from the Stock Alerts Watchlist.

Ticker Company Recent Price
Mar 31
SVNT Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. $19.70
FSIN Fushi Copperweld, Inc. $15.00

Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile Inc. (SQM) Mar 31 Recent Price:   $23.00
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A.(NYSE: SQM) is a mid–cap, Chile-based, fertilizer and agricultural chemical company. It specializes in producing and distributing: specialty plant nutrition (potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, sodium potassium nitrate, and potassium sulfate), iodine, lithium, and industrial chemicals (sodium nitrate, potassium nitrate, boric acid, and potassium chloride). Their primary customers include agricultural, medical and industrial companies, and they hold rights on 1.8 million hectares at the Caliche Ore Mines in Chile.
Best increased holdings by +43% Rest decreased holdings by -5%
The Best Investors started purchasing SQM in Aug. ’05 at $120. They held onto those shares and sold some in Nov. ’06 at $120, but then began purchasing them again in Apr. and Aug. ’07 at $150-$160. That bet has paid off and recently SQM hit a 52 week high of $232. The Best Investors are still quite bullish, as they purchased more shares in the past two weeks.
  
Mohawk Industries Inc. (MHK) Mar 31 Recent Price:   $71.12
Mohawk Industries Inc. (NYSE: MHK) is a mid-cap, Georgia-based, home furnishing company. It specializes in designing, creating and distributing carpets, rugs, ceramic tiles, laminated and hardwood floor coverings. Their primary customers include: department stores, mass merchandisers, home centers and floor retailers, located in the United States, Europe and Canada.
Best increased holdings by +14% Rest decreased holdings by -1%
The Best Investors started purchasing MHK in Jan ’04 at $71, but they would turn around and sell some in Oct. ’05 at $77. Then, they purchased some in Nov. ’06 at $70, and a bit more in May ’07 at $93. The stock has dropped a bit since then, but within the past two weeks the Best Investors have purchased more shares of MHK.
  
]]> Stock Alerts March 17, 2008 tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.613 2008-03-17T16:10:25Z 2008-03-17T16:10:38Z

Marketocracy Stock Alerts Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best. When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest. Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling Ticker Company Recent PriceMar... Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
]]>

Marketocracy Stock Alerts
Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best.

When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest.

Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling

Ticker Company Recent Price
Mar 17		 Best Buying Rest Selling
BCE BCE, Inc. $35.91 +32% -1%
NEU NewMarket Corp. $69.79 +13% -1%

Best Buying represents the increase in holdings by the best investors during the 2 weeks ending March 14, 2008
Rest Selling represents the decrease in holdings by the rest of investors during the 2 weeks ending March 14, 2008

Stocks Removed from the Watchlist
We keep 18 stocks on our Stock Alerts Watchlist at any given time. We remove the stocks that the best investors are not buying as strongly and sell them from the Watchlist portfolio. Some stocks that get removed from the Watchlist may still be held by the best investors. This week we are removing the following stocks from the Stock Alerts Watchlist.

Ticker Company Recent Price
Mar 17
FTEK Fuel-Tech, Inc. $15.88
SFN Spherion Corp. $6.08

BCE, Inc. (BCE) Mar 17 Recent Price:   $35.91
BCE Inc. (NYSE: BCE), is a large-cap, Canadian-based, integrated telecommunications company. BCE specializes in providing internet, wireline, wireless, data, and video services to residential and business customers across Canada. They operate under the Bell Alliant, Bell Mobility, Sympatico, Bell ExpressVu, Solo Mobile, Aliant Mobility, and Northwestel brand names.
Best increased holdings by +32% Rest decreased holdings by -1%
The Best Investors began purchasing BCE in July ’04 at $20, and many would hold their shares until Apr. ’07, when they sold some at $35. Perhaps they hope the momentum will continue as they have purchased more shares of BCE in the past two weeks.
  
NewMarket Corp. (NEU) Mar 17 Recent Price:   $69.79
NewMarket Group (NYSE: NEU), is a small-cap, Virginia-based, specialty chemical company. NEU specializes in creating and marketing lubricant and fuel additives for engines, drivelines, and industrial machinery. Their primary customers include international oil companies, original equipment manufactures and chemical companies.
Best increased holdings by +13% Rest decreased holdings by -1%
The Best Investors began purchasing NEU in July ’04 at $21, and they held those shares until Jan. ’06 when they purchased even more shares at $25. NEU had a nice rally, and some sold their shares (nice timing) in Oct. ’06 at $65. In July ’07, at $48 the Best Investors began purchasing shares again, and within the past two weeks, they bought some more.
  
]]> The banks aren't bouncing right back tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.612 2008-03-11T19:46:18Z 2008-03-11T19:51:06Z

In the last three months, I’ve come to the conclusion that the credit crunch is one of those rare events that is significant enough to change our long-term outlook and investment strategy.  Here’s why. Banks used to give loans only to people they believed would pay them back. This was the business model of every bank -- until the securitized loan business invented a new school of go-go banking. It's that business that has broken down. For banks, the securitized loan business model offered two big advantages. Since the loans were packaged and sold to investors, the quantity of loans a bank could make was not limited by its capital. And the bank was off the hook if a loan wasn’t repaid. The profits generated from securitizing loans made a big contribution to earnings growth in the financial sector. And therein lies the problem for stocks. The shutdown of the securitized loan industry is going to take a big chunk out of the earnings of Washington Mutual (W),  Citibank (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), Bear Stearns (BSC) and other names that were the leaders in securitizing loans. Investors might be able to look past the big subprime mortgage write-offs if they believed the banks’ problems were behind them, because in the end, market prices reflect future earnings. But without a source of earnings to replace the profits that used to come from securitizing loans, it will be difficult for the financial sector to sustain a rally. So although the financials have taken a beating, I am not at all tempted to bottom-fish the sector because I don’t see how earnings can recover. Further interest-rate cuts will not restore the securitized loan industry, so if earnings are to recover, they are going to have to come from something else that I don’t see right now. Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
]]> In the last three months, I’ve come to the conclusion that the credit crunch is one of those rare events that is significant enough to change our long-term outlook and investment strategy.  Here’s why.

Banks used to give loans only to people they believed would pay them back. This was the business model of every bank -- until the securitized loan business invented a new school of go-go banking.

It's that business that has broken down.

For banks, the securitized loan business model offered two big advantages. Since the loans were packaged and sold to investors, the quantity of loans a bank could make was not limited by its capital. And the bank was off the hook if a loan wasn’t repaid.

The profits generated from securitizing loans made a big contribution to earnings growth in the financial sector. And therein lies the problem for stocks. The shutdown of the securitized loan industry is going to take a big chunk out of the earnings of Washington Mutual (W),  Citibank (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), Bear Stearns (BSC) and other names that were the leaders in securitizing loans.

Investors might be able to look past the big subprime mortgage write-offs if they believed the banks’ problems were behind them, because in the end, market prices reflect future earnings. But without a source of earnings to replace the profits that used to come from securitizing loans, it will be difficult for the financial sector to sustain a rally.

So although the financials have taken a beating, I am not at all tempted to bottom-fish the sector because I don’t see how earnings can recover. Further interest-rate cuts will not restore the securitized loan industry, so if earnings are to recover, they are going to have to come from something else that I don’t see right now.

Lower interest rates, however, have already started to impact the rest of the market by driving the dollar to new lows and the price of oil (and other commodities) to new highs.  This is likely to continue, because the Fed seems determined to lower rates as much as is needed to address the problems in the financial sector.

Reducing interest rates is the most potent tool the government has to stimulate the economy. By reducing interest rates so much so fast, the Fed has put more stimulus into the economy than we’ve seen in many years. The problem is that it often takes nine to 12 months before the impact on the economy is noticeable.

Since interest rates started to come down about six months ago, I expect the economic statistics will get worse and the market will be weak until sometime in the third or fourth quarter of this year. But once the effect of all the interest-rate cuts works its way into the economy, we may see the best economic growth we’ve had in years.

The market is currently pricing in a long, drawn-out recession. If we start to see an improving economy later this year, many stocks outside of the financials sector could come roaring back.

At the end of last year, I changed the lineup up of the m100, the group of proven investors who advise us at Marketocracy.com, to remove members whose track records told me they were only skilled in making money in the financial sector. This change is the single biggest reason why my mutual fund, although down, is ahead of the market so far this year.

Over the last seven years, many of the current m100’s most profitable positions were purchased when the market was engulfed in fear as it is now. The ability to pick the right stocks when everyone else is afraid is the skill that I think is most important to have on my team right now. If you agree, send a message to me at kenkam.mofqx@marketocracy.com to let me know.

]]> Stock Alerts March 3, 2008 tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.610 2008-03-03T16:09:42Z 2008-03-03T16:09:59Z Marketocracy Stock Alerts Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best. When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest. Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling Ticker Company Recent PriceMar... Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
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Marketocracy Stock Alerts
Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best.

When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest.

Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling

Ticker Company Recent Price
Mar 1		 Best Buying Rest Selling
AIZ Assurant Inc. $61.72 +29% -1%
CMTL Comtech Telecommunications Corp. $43.26 +11% -1%

Best Buying represents the increase in holdings by the best investors during the 2 weeks ending February 29, 2008
Rest Selling represents the decrease in holdings by the rest of investors during the 2 weeks ending February 29, 2008

Stocks Removed from the Watchlist
We keep 18 stocks on our Stock Alerts Watchlist at any given time. We remove the stocks that the best investors are not buying as strongly and sell them from the Watchlist portfolio. Some stocks that get removed from the Watchlist may still be held by the best investors. This week we are removing the following stocks from the Stock Alerts Watchlist.

Ticker Company Recent Price
Mar 1
USHS US Home Systems Inc. $4.08
YGE Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. $16.99

Assurant Inc. (AIZ) Mar 1 Recent Price:   $61.72
Assurant Inc. (NYSE: AIZ) is a New York–based, mid-cap, multi-line insurance company. AIZ specializes in domestic extended service contracts, and insurance relating to: funerals (preneed), credit, homeowners, health, dental, disability and life insurance. Their customers are primarily located in North America, as well as the U.K., Denmark, Germany, Spain, Italy, Argentina, and Brazil.
Best increased holdings by +29% Rest decreased holdings by -1%
The Best Investors began purchasing AIZ in May ’05 at $34. AIZ enjoyed an incredible run, and they kept loading up on those shares until Feb. ’07 when some started selling it at $57. Now, in the past two weeks perhaps the Best Investors hope for the same, as they have purchased more shares of AIZ.
  
Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (CMTL) Mar 1 Recent Price:   $43.26
Comtech Telecommunications Corp.(NASDAQ: CMTL) is a New York–based, small-cap, communications equipment company. CMTL specializes in telecommunications transmission, mobile data communications and radio frequency microwave amplifiers. Their primary customers include commercial and government agencies that deal with satellites, defense, data storage, and oil.
Best increased holdings by +11% Rest decreased holdings by -1%
The Best Investors began purchasing CMTL in Jan. ‘05 at $25, and they held onto those shares until Nov. ’06, when they sold some at $37. In Apr. ’07, they purchased more at $38 and in the past two weeks, more shares of CMTL have been purchased.
  
]]> Buy a little more Elan (ELN) tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.609 2008-02-27T21:12:21Z 2008-02-27T21:20:23Z

Early today the newswires reported that the FDA had issued a warning that Tysabri may cause liver damage in certain users. Shares of Elan fell as much as 10% following the announcement. Later in the day, an FDA spokeswoman said the warning does not reflect new cases but is simply a reiteration of a revised label the FDA required on January 16 when it approved the use of Tysabri for patients with Crohn’s disease. Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
]]> Early today the newswires reported that the FDA had issued a warning that Tysabri may cause liver damage in certain users. Shares of Elan fell as much as 10% following the announcement.

Later in the day, an FDA spokeswoman said the warning does not reflect new cases but is simply a reiteration of a revised label the FDA required on January 16 when it approved the use of Tysabri for patients with Crohn’s disease.

In preparation for the rollout of Tysabri for Crohn’s disease, Elan and Biogen must have sent letters to doctors to make sure they were aware of the need to monitor liver function. This is standard practice, and it's a good practice, but its not cause for concern.

A lot of people sold on the first news report before the FDA clarified the situation. Since the stock was still down by over 6% at the end of the day, investors who like to wait for the facts to come out before making their decisions can still get some shares at a good price.

That’s what I’m going to do. Elan is already in my portfolio, but I can’t resist adding a little here.

]]> 3 things you can do to improve your 401k tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.608 2008-02-20T23:22:09Z 2008-02-20T23:27:19Z Don’t like any of the mutual funds available in your company’s 401k plan? You’re not alone. Many people who asked for my list of 16 top core funds wrote to tell me that none of these funds are available for their 401k (click here to request the list). There’s a surprising reason for this that you won’t like, and 3 things you can do about it. You see, it costs something to administer a 401k plan. To cover these costs, many mutual funds pay to be included on the short list of funds that employees can choose from. In the industry this practice is called “pay to play.” The funds are willing to pay because it means they do not have to compete with better funds for your 401k account. Not all of the funds on the short list are paying to be there. But it’s awfully hard to get on the list without paying. It baffles me that many people seem content to choose only from the short list of funds that, for the most part, paid to be there. This is retirement money after all so it has long investment horizon. Small differences in returns can really add up over the course of a career to make a big difference in the quality of life in retirement. Choosing a core fund with a manager with a track record of successfully adjusting to the market’s ups and downs is one of the most important financial decisions most people will ever make. The choice should not be limited to funds that “pay to play.” If you want better choices for your 401k plan, here are 3 things you can do. Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
]]> Don’t like any of the mutual funds available in your company’s 401k plan? You’re not alone. Many people who asked for my list of 16 top core funds wrote to tell me that none of these funds are available for their 401k (click here to request the list). There’s a surprising reason for this that you won’t like, and 3 things you can do about it.

You see, it costs something to administer a 401k plan. To cover these costs, many mutual funds pay to be included on the short list of funds that employees can choose from. In the industry this practice is called “pay to play.” The funds are willing to pay because it means they do not have to compete with better funds for your 401k account. Not all of the funds on the short list are paying to be there. But it’s awfully hard to get on the list without paying.

It baffles me that many people seem content to choose only from the short list of funds that, for the most part, paid to be there. This is retirement money after all so it has long investment horizon. Small differences in returns can really add up over the course of a career to make a big difference in the quality of life in retirement. Choosing a core fund with a manager with a track record of successfully adjusting to the market’s ups and downs is one of the most important financial decisions most people will ever make. The choice should not be limited to funds that “pay to play.”

If you want better choices for your 401k plan, here are 3 things you can do.

First, ask your company to add the fund you want to your 401k plan. Even if your plan is run by a huge bank, your employer has the final say about what investment choices are available. It is pretty easy for your employer to add a fund but it’s hard for them to know which ones you might want. Make it easy for them and tell them which ones you want. Don’t wait to be asked. You may be pleasantly surprised at how responsive your employer can be.

Second, ask your company if your 401k plan includes what is called a “self-directed window.” Many 401k plans allow employees to invest a portion of their account among a much bigger list of funds through a self-directed window. If your company’s plan is run by Fidelity or Schwab, the list of additional funds can be impressive and many of the funds on my list of top core funds will be there.

If you can’t get the fund you want added to your plan, and there is no self-directed window, you’ll have to choose from among the plan’s offerings for now. But, when its time to change employers, you should consider moving your 401k account to a rollover IRA at a brokerage firm that will give you a lot more investment choices.

There may be a small annual fee for the IRA, but I think it is well worth it to be able to invest your retirement account in funds that don’t put your employer’s interests ahead of yours.

]]> Stock Alerts February 19, 2008 tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.607 2008-02-19T18:39:27Z 2008-02-19T18:39:51Z Marketocracy Stock Alerts Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best. When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest. Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling Ticker Company Recent PriceFeb... Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
]]>

Marketocracy Stock Alerts
Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best.

When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest.

Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling

Ticker Company Recent Price
Feb 19		 Best Buying Rest Selling
SGY Stone Energy Corp. $44.30 +23% -3%
TNE Tele Norte Leste Participacoes S.A. $23.12 +13% -2%

Best Buying represents the increase in holdings by the best investors during the 2 weeks ending February 15, 2008
Rest Selling represents the decrease in holdings by the rest of investors during the 2 weeks ending February 15, 2008

Stocks Removed from the Watchlist
We keep 18 stocks on our Stock Alerts Watchlist at any given time. We remove the stocks that the best investors are not buying as strongly and sell them from the Watchlist portfolio. Some stocks that get removed from the Watchlist may still be held by the best investors. This week we are removing the following stocks from the Stock Alerts Watchlist.

Ticker Company Recent Price
Feb 19
AMY AmREIT $6.95
CITP Comsys IT Partners, Inc. $9.96

Stone Energy Corp. (SGY) Feb 19 Recent Price:   $44.30
Stone Energy Corp. (NYSE: SGY) is a small-cap, Louisiana-based, oil & natural gas exploration/production company. They’re involved in exploring, developing and operating gas deposits in the Gulf of Mexico, Williston and Rocky Mountain Basins, and Bohai Bay, China.
Best increased holdings by +23% Rest decreased holdings by -3%
The Best Investors started purchasing SGY in Dec. ’03 at around $38. They would buy some again in Aug. ’05 at $53, but then turned around and sold it in Apr. ’06 at $45. Perhaps their confidence was renewed, in June ‘07 they began loading up on SGY and haven’t slowed down since. Recently, in the past two weeks, the Best Investors have purchased even more shares of SGY.
  
Tele Norte Leste Participacoes S.A. (TNE) Feb 19 Recent Price:   $23.12
Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (NYSE: TNE) is a mid–cap, Brazilian-based, integrated telecommunications company located in Region 1 of Brazil. TNE provides products for local services, long distance, traffic transportation, network usage, mobile telecommunications, public telephones and data transmission services.
Best increased holdings by +13% Rest decreased holdings by -2%
The Best Investors started purchasing TNE in Mar. ‘05 at $15 and they kept purchasing shares until Aug ’07 and Oct. ’07, when some would sell their shares for about $22. Although the Best Investors purchased more shares of TNE in the past two weeks; perhaps, the most intriguing aspect of this particular stock is that they had also purchased another Brazilian telecom stock (BTM) a while ago.
  
]]> Top 3 Questions From the Money Show tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.606 2008-02-19T17:02:39Z 2008-02-19T17:11:30Z

I want to thank everyone who came to the Money Show in Orlando a couple of weeks ago. I had so many great discussions with people at the MSN booth that I’d like to share with you my answers to the 3 questions that came up the most often. Q: What can I do to protect my core portfolio? A:  If you are using mutual funds, the managers of your core funds should be making adjustments for you. After all, it is times like these when good managers earn their fees. No one likes to lose money, but if your core fund has fallen less than the market, I’d say your fund manager is doing a decent job. However, if your core fund has fallen more than the market, and the manager is not doing anything about it, it’s time to make a change. In general I think your core should be between 40% and 60% of your equity investments divided among 3 or 4 great core funds. There are not many mutual funds that have done a good enough job over the past 5 years under the current manager to be considered a core fund.  In December, I searched Morningstar’s database and came up with a list of just 16. If you would like to see the list, click here to send me a message. Q: Is it time to buy beaten down financial stocks? A: I wouldn’t do it. These stocks look attractive to value investors because of their low P/Es and high dividend yields. But using historical earnings to calculate P/E’s is misleading when the earnings are the result of a business that has been shut down. In this case, the subprime mortgage business that produced much of profits in this sector over the past 5 years has essentially been shut down and it will not be back soon. Many banks are still sorting out the extent of the damage and there is a chance that the problem will expand beyond subprime mortgages to other types of loans that were securitized in the same way as subprime mortgages. Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
]]> I want to thank everyone who came to the Money Show in Orlando a couple of weeks ago. I had so many great discussions with people at the MSN booth that I’d like to share with you my answers to the 3 questions that came up the most often.

Q: What can I do to protect my core portfolio?

A:  If you are using mutual funds, the managers of your core funds should be making adjustments for you. After all, it is times like these when good managers earn their fees.

No one likes to lose money, but if your core fund has fallen less than the market, I’d say your fund manager is doing a decent job. However, if your core fund has fallen more than the market, and the manager is not doing anything about it, it’s time to make a change.

In general I think your core should be between 40% and 60% of your equity investments divided among 3 or 4 great core funds. There are not many mutual funds that have done a good enough job over the past 5 years under the current manager to be considered a core fund.  In December, I searched Morningstar’s database and came up with a list of just 16. If you would like to see the list, click here to send me a message.

Q: Is it time to buy beaten down financial stocks?

A: I wouldn’t do it. These stocks look attractive to value investors because of their low P/Es and high dividend yields. But using historical earnings to calculate P/E’s is misleading when the earnings are the result of a business that has been shut down.

In this case, the subprime mortgage business that produced much of profits in this sector over the past 5 years has essentially been shut down and it will not be back soon. Many banks are still sorting out the extent of the damage and there is a chance that the problem will expand beyond subprime mortgages to other types of loans that were securitized in the same way as subprime mortgages.

In short, the losses could get worse and I don’t see anything that will replace the profits that the subprime mortgage business used to generate for the banks. These stocks look cheap, but the prospect for earnings is grim so they are not good values.

If you want to invest in some beaten down financial stocks, look for stocks like U.S. Global Investors (GROW) and Mastercard (MA) that don’t have direct exposure to the subprime mortgage industry and have much better earnings prospects.

Q: Should I get out of the market?

A: I don’t believe the doom and gloom predictions. Sure, we have problems in the financial and housing sectors but we are working through them, and the interest rate cuts that are already in place have planted the seeds for a strong recovery later this year.

The best time to buy a company’s stock is when it has dropped significantly for reasons that do not affect the company. I believe this is the case with many of the stocks in my Strategy Lab portfolio. If I am right, this is a great time to be investing in my portfolio. But if I am wrong, I’ve tried to select companies that I think will fall less than the market.

I don't think it is advisable to get completely out of the market because if the doom and gloom crowd is wrong, the market could make a nice run once the crisis subsides and the interest rate cuts kick in.

]]> Stock Alerts February 4, 2008 tag:research.marketocracy.com,2008:/BIP//1.596 2008-02-04T23:00:00Z 2008-02-05T04:04:30Z Marketocracy Stock Alerts Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best. When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest. Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling Ticker Company Recent PriceFeb... Ken Kam www.marketocracy.com
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Marketocracy Stock Alerts
Objective, compelling stock advice for those that want to invest with the best.

When is the best time to buy a stock? Before you decide, wouldn't you want to know what the best investors are doing? Marketocracy is the only research company that delivers stock alerts based on the comparative trading activity between the best investors and the rest.

Strong Buys: When the best investors are buying and the rest are selling

Ticker Company Recent Price
Feb 4		 Best Buying Rest Selling
CAL Continental Airlines, Inc. $27.88 +20% -1%
LXU LSB Industries Inc. $26.95 +15% -9%

Best Buying represents the increase in holdings by the best investors during the 2 weeks ending February 1, 2008
Rest Selling represents the decrease in holdings by the rest of investors during the 2 weeks ending February 1, 2008

Stocks Removed from the Watchlist
We keep 18 stocks on our Stock Alerts Watchlist at any given time. We remove the stocks that the best investors are not buying as strongly and sell them from the Watchlist portfolio. Some stocks that get removed from the Watchlist may still be held by the best investors. This week we are removing the following stocks from the Stock Alerts Watchlist.

Ticker Company Recent Price
Feb 4
TQNT TriQuint Semiconductor Inc. $4.74
BX The Blackstone Group $18.89

Continental Airlines, Inc. (CAL) Feb 4 Recent Price:   $27.88
Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) is a mid-cap, Texas-based, airline company with 136 domestic and 126 international destinations. They have domestic hubs at New York Liberty, Houston and Cleveland, and they have relationships with ExpressJet, Chautauqua, SkyTeam, Hawaiian Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Horizon Airlines, Amtrak, and others. CAL's primary competitors include Northwest, US Airways, United Airlines and Delta.
Best increased holdings by +20% Rest decreased holdings by -1%
The Best Investors began purchasing CAL in June '04 at $10, and they would hold the shares until Nov. '06 when they sold some at around $34 TO $36. In July '07 they sold a bit more at around $35, but in the past two weeks, the Best Investors have purchased shares of CAL once again.
  
LSB Industries Inc. (LXU) Feb 4 Recent Price:   $26.95
LSB Industries Inc. (AMEX: LXU) is a small-cap, Oklahoma-based, manufacturing company that manufactures climate control and chemical products. In the climate control segment they create and sell geothermal and water heat pumps and fan coils that are used primarily in commercial buildings. In the chemical segment they create and sell acids for paper, polyurethane, fiber and electronics products.
Best increased holdings by +15% Rest decreased holdings by -9%
The Best Investors began purchasing LXU in Apr. ’06 at $9 and some more in Apr. ‘07 at $16. The stock has had an incredible run and perhaps The Best hope the luck will continue as they have purchased more in the past two weeks.
  
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