Ken Kam's Best Ideas Blog

In my recent journal on Apple, I took a look at whether Apple, which has doubled over the last year, has the potential to double again. To me, in the end, it came down to this question: Is the iPhone a cell phone that is also an iPod, or is it an iPod that is also a cell phone?

There are many smart, competitive cell phones, but the iPod is, hands down, the dominant music player.

Well, you can tell a lot more about what people are thinking by observing what they do, rather than listening to what they say.

The phone companies clearly don't think the iPhone should be compared with other smart phones. They have done deals with Apple that they would not have done with any other smart phone manufacturer.

Neither do the buyers. They are passing on the Motorola, Nokia and Palm smart phones, even though they are, because of wireless-carrier subsidies, much cheaper -- and sometimes even free.

Conclusion: The answer to the question I posed in the last article is that the iPhone is more properly thought of as an iPod that just happens to make calls.

Continue reading "Can't beat an iPod that makes phone calls" »

Posted by Ken Kam at 05:06 PM | Permalink

Apple’s stock has doubled over the last year. Now, after the launch of the iPhone, one of the most talked about consumer product launches in history, Is it time to sell, or can Apple double again?

That’s the question we, and a lot of other investors are asking. At Marketocracy, we track the trading of over 100,000 people around the world and have assembled a team of the top 100, which we call the m100. They have made Apple, Inc. (nasdaq: AAPL) one of the biggest positions in the m100 Index. If you’ve been following the Strategy Lab Open, you’ll know that Apple is the most widely held stock: 150 of the 550 portfolio managers competing to be selected for the next MSN Strategy Lab have added Apple to their portfolios.

Continue reading "Can the iPhone drive another double for Apple?" »

Posted by Ken Kam at 02:59 PM | Permalink

I'm going to use my blog to open a discussion about Apple, Inc. Apple is one of the biggest holdings of the m100 and it is the most widely held stock in SLO.

I would like to understand the conventional Wall Street wisdom about this stock and why so many people think it is wrong.

Conventional Wisdom:

Apple has stumbled in the highly competitive smart-phone industry by cutting the price of its iPhone so sharply after just a few weeks from launch, thereby earning the wrath of its most loyal customers. Cutting the price by $200 reduces the revenue from 10 million handset by $2 billion.

Why the Conventional Wisdom might be wrong:

The iPhone and iPod products are not just cool products. They are the foundation of a new distribution system for music and video that will change the economics of the entertainment industry in Apple's favor.

What I would like to know?

1. Why is Apple able to get the owners of content to agree to its iTunes store pricing? It seems that NBC is balking. Who needs the other more, Apple or NBC?

2. Is there a competitor to the iTunes store that has a chance to overtake Apple?

3. Apple has struck a very unique deal with AT&T, getting a piece of the subscription contract and probably more and now a piece of the ring tones. Do you have any data on their deal with AT&T?

4. Can Apple replicate any part of their AT&T deal with other carriers?

Posted by Mark Taguchi at 07:39 PM | Permalink